Continuing Conflicts That Create Refugees - June 2023

Deteriorated Situations: Libya, Russia (Internal), India,Guinea, Ukraine, Pakistan, Somalia, Cameroon, Somaliland, Chad, Sudan, Kosovo.

Conflict Risk Alerts: Korean Peninsula - Russia (Internal) - Somaliland - Sudan

Crisiswatch Identified Deteriorations in Twelve Countries in May

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s arrest in Pakistan triggered deadly street clashes between his supporters and security forces, widening the breach with the government and straining Khan’s relations with the military (see “Country in Focus”).

In India, ethnic clashes in Manipur state in the north east killed scores of people and displaced tens of thousands, stoking the dormant separatist insurgency.

As military operations against Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency in Somalia reached a standstill, the group launched a major attack on an African Union military base, likely leaving dozens dead.

In Guinea, changes in the military leadership revealed tensions at the highest levels of government, and deadly protests erupted following the failure of the mediation process between transitional military authorities and the opposition.

Fighting between rival militias broke out in western Libya as moves to form a new executive heightened political tension, while also undermining a UN push to hold elections before the end of the year.
Protests in Kosovo’s Serb-majority northern municipalities following tense April elections turned violent, injuring dozens of people, including NATO peacekeepers.

Aside from the dozens of conflict situations we assess every month, we tracked significant developments in Bahrain, Benin, Ecuador, Guatemala, Indonesia and Senegal.

Global Conflict Tracker Warns of Four Conflict Risks in June

Sudan - Somaliland - Korean Peninsula - Ukraine

Hostilities escalated in Sudan between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, notably in Darfur region, where the growing involvement of tribal militias and armed groups threatens all-out civil war.

In Somaliland, fighting between government forces and Dhulbahante clan militias spread in the Sool region. As parties recruit new fighters, the conflict could morph into a confrontation between clan families and ripple into other parts of Somaliland.

Large-scale military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea to mark their alliance’s 70th anniversary and North Korea’s attempts to launch a satellite look set to contribute to a spike in tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

In Russia, Ukraine-aligned Russian combatants staged a cross-border incursion and multiple drones targeted the capital, Moscow. As the war in Ukraine continues, more subversive activities and attacks on Russian territory can be expected.

Source: Crisis Watch, https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch

UN Report: Catalogue of Failings in Home Office’s ‘Flawed’ Asylum System

A devastating catalogue of failings in the Home Office’s “flawed and inefficient” asylum system has been uncovered in a damning UN report. The eight-month audit of the UK’s asylum system by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) picked apart the government’s immigration policy to reveal a deeply dysfunctional department.

The 200-page report found that children were wrongly detained as adults, trafficking victims were potentially missed, vulnerable people were locked up, and laws and government policies were violated.

It concluded that:

Officials had “inadequate training” and interview skills to identify victims of torture, trafficking and rape

“Incomplete, inaccurate or unreliable” information was being taken from asylum seekers

Children were being accused of lying about their age by officials with “no formal training or guidance”

Home Office staff were wrongly discouraging people from claiming asylum, or trying to persuade them to withdraw claims

Asylum seekers were being “left in limbo at a higher cost” to the government because they were deemed ineligible after passing through safe countries

The report, in which Home Office staff told of their “frustration” that government policies were slowing down the system and driving up costs, comes a day after The Independent revealed that officials were considering strike action over the plan to deport people to Rwanda.

Read morea: Lizzie Dearden, Independent, https://tinyurl.com/2p89u98t

Home Office Staff Could Strike if Forced to Implement ‘Unlawful’ Rwanda Asylum Plan

A union representing frontline workers receiving migrants crossing the English Channel and deciding their asylum claims says internal rows over the government’s plans could escalate into an industrial dispute. Home Office staff will not “just sit back and take” the Rwanda deal and new small boats bill, and may strike if forced to implement measures they believe are unlawful.

It would be the latest in a string of strikes by civil servants, with 130,000 people walking out of 132 government departments last month over pay and conditions. Home Office workers have already voiced their opposition to Suella Braverman’s aim of detaining and deporting anyone arriving in a dinghy, regardless of the merits of their claims, in a series of staff meetings and angry posts on internal message boards. “You can’t do this kind of s*** and still pretend that you are legal,” one asylum official previously told The Independent. “Being elected doesn’t give you the right to break the law.”

Read more: Lizzie Dearden, Independent, https://tinyurl.com/yhjdhpux

2022 UK Charter Deportations: A Balance Sheet

In 2022, the UK deported 1,566 people to nine countries on 62 specially-chartered flights (1) flown by eight airlines (2). The figures are a little higher than 2021, when 1,305 people were deported on 65 charter flights. Combining Freedom of Information requests by Patrice Petit with flight data available via flight tracking websites (3), Corporate Watch can reveal which companies carried out these flights, and how much money the Home Office paid them to do it.

The Flights and the People: In terms of destinations, deportation charter flights in 2022 followed similar patterns to 2021 and previous years. Albania was by far the most frequent destination, with 35 flights deporting approximately 900 people, more than all other nationalities combined. Next were three EU countries: Romania, Poland and Lithuania, receiving 11, 8 and 5 flights, for an approximate total of 300, 145 and 94 people respectively. Flights to Ghana and Nigeria (21 people), Jamaica (7 people), Vietnam (40 people) and Zimbabwe (2 flights, 35 people) accounted for the rest. Five flights scheduled to Iraq, Jamaica, Lithuania, Poland and Rwanda were cancelled.

The most recent immigration statistics published by the Home Office state that the “vast majority of enforced returns” were of so-called Foreign National Offenders (“FNO”). These were overwhelmingly to European countries, but also included Ghana, Jamaica, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. The Windrush scandal showed how deportations to these post-colonial territories are systemically racist in nature, and particularly susceptible to procedural abuse. Many of those on the planes will be more at home in the UK than anywhere else, regardless of any irregularities in their immigration status.

Aource: Corporate Watch, https://tinyurl.com/bdhhub38

A Short History of the Net Migration Target

What was it, where did it come from and how did it come to dominate immigration discourse?

On a rather uncomfortable looking cocktail chair in a TV studio in January 2010, David Cameron unknowingly sealed his own fate. It was on this chair, during an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr, that the then Leader of the Opposition re-iterated a three year old Conservative Party policy to cap immigration. Cameron said he aspired to reduce net migration from ‘hundreds of thousands’ to ‘tens of thousands’.

This interview somehow morphed into universally received wisdom that a solid, solemn pledge had been made to reduce net migration to below 100,000, known as ‘the net migration target’. This net migration target became unofficial government policy. It was hugely influential, driving the adoption of a range of harsh immigration policies intended to reduce arrivals and increase departures. It infected all aspects of immigration policy and decision making.

Its legacy continues today. Remarkably, everyone remains focussed on net migration rather than immigration. The two are not the same. Focussing on overall net migration confuses and blends together emigration with different forms of immigration, such as returning British citizens, skilled workers, shortage occupations, students, families and refugees.

Colin Yeo, “We Wanted Workers” https://tinyurl.com/2kwynkn2

Reaction Economy: Home Office’s Use of Social Media

The Power of Media: Not only does it let the Home Office directly mould the opinions of voters, but it lets it direct the press, with most journalists, particularly for papers sympathetic to the government, content to use government press releases to guide their copy.

Statistics over the last few months bear this out. Since the government put forward its Illegal Migration Bill at the beginning of the year and since the Home Office began its social media highlighting small boats, polling has seen illegal immigration rise as an issue in the public consciousness.

In February, only 12% of people polled by Ipsos thought immigration was a priority issue. By March, its salience had increased by eight points – with immigration (particularly illegal immigration) becoming the second most important issue for Conservative voters, behind only the economy. At a time when NHS waiting lists are endless, the climate is on the cusp of breakdown, and inflation is rampant, that a third of the nation thinks the second most important issue is a few thousand desperate people in boats is astonishing.

This reflects the power of social media and how it can be used to shape issues, to obfuscate reality, and perhaps even to manipulate the press. There is no duty of candour on a Home Office Twitter thread. The Home Office is free to pump out propaganda about how it has ‘BUSTED’ (complete with a Klaxon emoji) illegal workers at car mechanics or, more incongruously, to brag about how it is planning to deny illegal immigrants protection from modern slavery.

Read more: Freemovement, https://tinyurl.com/ymba4z3j